Trump’s “America First” policy could lead to more trade wars, targeting both allies and adversaries, including India and China.
He may impose new tariffs on imports, such as a 10% tax on all goods and 60% on Chinese products, leading to inflation worldwide.
India could face higher tariffs on goods like agricultural products and IT services, particularly impacting its trade surplus with the U.S.
Trump could revive restrictions on skilled worker visas (H1B, L1), limiting the flow of Indian IT professionals to the U.S.
Companies like Infosys might have to hire more U.S. workers, as seen during Trump’s first term when visa denials surged.
Global Supply Chain Disruptions
Higher tariffs and protectionist policies will increase costs, impacting global supply chains and causing price hikes in the U.S. and abroad.
U.S. exports of technology and agricultural products will likely face increased costs, affecting global markets.
U.S.-China Relations
Trump will likely aim to close the $380 billion trade deficit with China, further escalating tensions, especially as China’s economy faces challenges.
China may struggle to find new markets for its goods, especially in sectors like electric vehicles and steel, facing stiff opposition from regions like the EU and India.
Energy and Climate Policies
Trump’s push for more oil and gas drilling would reduce the U.S.’s focus on climate goals, reshaping global energy dynamics.
The EU’s efforts to reduce dependency on Russian LNG could be influenced by Trump’s policies, with the U.S. continuing to supply more natural gas
Impact on Multilateralism
Trump may continue undermining international agreements, including those through the WTO, in favor of bilateral negotiations.
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