Why in News
Meteorologists expected a historic hurricane season for 2024 due to a predicted strong La Niña.
Contrary to forecasts, 2024 has seen no major hurricanes so far.
Current forecasts are being downgraded as La Niña has not materialized as expected.
The Challenge of Forecasting Cyclones
Seasonal cyclone forecasting remains difficult despite improved accuracy in predicting landfall.
Forecasting the intensity of cyclones is particularly challenging.
There is limited skill in predicting post-landfall impacts, which can cause significant damage.
Climate models often do not directly resolve cyclone activity, complicating future projections.
Good, Bad, and Ugly
Good: India has improved cyclone forecasting and disaster management, reducing fatalities.
Bad: The region faces vulnerabilities from chronic stressors (climate change) and acute stressors (heavy rainfall, droughts, cyclones), exacerbating the impact of cyclones.
Ugly: Economic development in India hinges on resilience to climate impacts; socio-economic vulnerabilities are also national security issues.
From Nation to Region
There is a need for better predictions of rapid intensification and landfall impacts.
Hyperlocal risk mapping is essential due to limited resources for widespread coverage.
India is incorporating climate resilience into fiscal policies through investments in renewable energy and disaster management.
Regional cooperation on climate risks is crucial for stability and trade in the Indian subcontinent.
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