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La Niña, a cooling of the central Pacific Ocean, is expected to firmly establish itself in September.
This phenomenon is likely to result in a rainy September for several parts of North India.
IMD's Rainfall Forecast:
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy rainfall in September, especially in northern regions of India.
Despite the monsoon usually beginning to retreat in September, La Niña's impact is expected to cause vigorous cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal.
This activity will likely lead to several rain episodes throughout most of September.
Monsoon rainfall in September is expected to be 9% above the usual average, which is 16.8 cm.
This uneven distribution of rainfall implies that regions like Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, and Delhi are likely to experience heavy rains.
The typical monsoon withdrawal usually begins by mid-September.
However, due to the expected heavy rainfall, it is currently too early to predict the exact timing of the monsoon's retreat.
Rainfall in August exceeded IMD's initial forecast.
The IMD had predicted August rainfall to be 6% above normal, but the actual rainfall turned out to be 15% more than normal.
Cyclonic Activity:
IMD's weather models, which have higher accuracy for short-term forecasts (1-2 weeks), indicate the formation of at least four cyclone precursors in the coming month.
Meanwhile, the cyclonic storm Asna, which had moved away from the Gujarat coast, is expected to dissipate by September 2.
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