Predicting & mitigating
Effective disaster management and recovery are essential to mitigate the impact of natural disasters
Early warnings are crucial but can be insufficient.
They start with weather forecasts but need to account for long-term climate risks.
Climate risk outlooks should extend over decades, not just immediate forecasts, to better prepare for extreme events.
General warnings about risks (e.g., landslides in a region) may not always translate into specific preventive actions
Challenges
Models predicting extreme events are often inaccurate due to their inability to account for local, small-scale factors.
Regional factors, like coastal sea surface temperatures, can exacerbate global climate drivers and impact local weather patterns.
Global models often miss local details, leading to underestimates of extreme weather events.
Improving forecasts requires integrating local observations and downscaling global models to capture finer details
Solutions
Artificial intelligence and machine learning can enhance predictions by using high-resolution data more efficiently than traditional models.
Implementing local protective measures, such as regulations to prevent deforestation, can mitigate disaster impacts.
Effective disaster management requires coordination between national and local governments for better risk monitoring and response
Adequate budgetary provisions are necessary to address the financial aspects of disaster mitigation and management.
Short-term predictions (weeks) can help mobilize resources and prepare for imminent risks.
A robust data network is needed to map and understand local factors that amplify extreme events.
Incorporating lessons from past disasters into predictive models and disaster management strategies is crucial for reducing future risks
Way forward
Governments should enhance regulations and policies based on long-term climate predictions and local risk assessments.
Collecting and analyzing local weather and climate data is vital for improving the accuracy of extreme event predictions.
Adapting land use and development practices to account for local climate risks can reduce the likelihood of disasters.
Long-term disaster mitigation strategies should focus on building climate resilience through sustainable practices and improved forecasting
COMMENTS