Why in news
The ceasefire between the military and the Alliance in Shan State, Myanmar proved to be fragile, and clashes resumed last month
Additionally, the Brotherhood Alliance captured a few strategically important towns, with the military on the verge of losing complete control of its regional military headquarters in Lashio
The Brotherhood Alliance — comprising the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army
Meanwhile, the Kachin Independence Army has seized about 70 military posts and gained control of important border trade routes with China.
The dominance of the Arakan Army
The Arakan Army, composed of the Rakhine Buddhist ethnic group, has taken control of large parts of Rakhine province, including areas on the Bangladesh border such as Buthidaung.
The Arakan Army is advancing towards important port cities on the Bay of Bengal coast, including Kyauk Phyu, Sittwe, and Ngapali
Economic Significance
Kyauk Phyu is crucial for China’s Belt and Road Initiative, featuring oil and gas pipelines to China’s Yunnan province and plans for expanding its deep-sea port
Stability in Sittwe is vital for India’s Kaladan project, which aims to connect Kolkata with Mizoram via Myanmar
The Arakan Army’s actions could significantly affect regional security, impacting infrastructure projects and the Rohingya crisis
The agenda of EAOs
EAOs have increased their presence around Dawei and are close to dislodging the military in Myawaddy, impacting access to crucial resources and revenue for the military
Concerns over Balkanisation
There are concerns about Myanmar’s potential fragmentation, which could negatively impact neighboring countries.
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has alleged efforts to create a new sovereign state by carving out territories from both Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Strategic Decisions
Major EAOs in Myanmar have avoided declaring independence or creating new nation-states, possibly to prevent uniting the military against them
And to focus on establishing a federal democratic structure with significant provincial autonomy
Myanmar’s ethnic geographies are complex and multi-ethnic
It’s due to historical population movements, leading to shared urban spaces and overlapping ethnic boundaries, which complicates the creation of new nation-states
Creating new nation-states with new boundaries could lead to inter-ethnic friction
as seen with differing opinions on ethnic homelands among various groups, such as Arakan, Chin, Wa, Kachin, and Ta’ang.
China’s influence
China Supports Myanmar’s military internationally while maintaining relations with armed groups like the Brotherhood Alliance and UWSA
Facilitated temporary ceasefires, such as the Haigeng agreement in January.
High-level Myanmar officials, including former president Thein Sein, visited China, indicating increased diplomatic engagement.
China’s policy is partly driven by threats from criminal syndicates near its border and possible tacit support for the Brotherhood Alliance to counteract these threats
China has supplied both the UWSA and Myanmar’s military with various weapons and equipment.
By supporting both sides, China maintains leverage and ensures Myanmar remains fragmented
A cycle of confrontation and ceasefires persists, with no long-term resolution in sight
Sustainable peace requires a new constitutional framework embracing federalism and democracy, moving beyond the 2008 Constitution
India’s role
India can offer insights into federalism, including institutional frameworks, financial arrangements, and special provisions from agreements like the Mizoram Peace Accord.
India’s success in infrastructure projects in conflict zones like Afghanistan shows its potential to aid Myanmar
India can contribute to Myanmar’s peace and prosperity despite not sharing a border
COMMENTS