Significance of the Prime Minister Modi's Visit to Russia
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Modi had decided not to go for an annual India-Russia summit in 2022 and 2023
While the war in Ukraine continues, the nature of the conflict has changed
Mr. Modi’s Moscow visit must be read in the context of how New Delhi sees the progress of the conflict
The evident warmth between Mr. Modi and the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, drew sharp criticism from the Ukraine President Zelenskyy
Also a series of statements from the U.S. State Department, the National Security Adviser and the U.S. Ambassador to India, expressing disappointment
As western countries now push for a “peace process”, that began with the conference in Switzerland, New Delhi seems to have concluded that a frozen conflict is the most likely outcome
Strategic Implications of the Visit
India’s concerns about keeping Russia on-side in the face of continuing tensions with China at the Line of Actual Control remain a priority
With its refusal to make the Quad (India, Japan, Australia, U.S.) a strategic concept, New Delhi stands in danger of limiting its utility to Indo-Pacific partners compared to these other groups
Russia visit was not just an assertion of India’s strategic autonomy but also a reminder that India still has other options.
Geo-economics thrust
As that western sanctions against Russia will remain, and, consequently, so will India’s supply of discounted Russian oil as well
These imports have meant that India-Russia trade ties, grew by 66% to a whopping $65 billion last year
The spurt is unsustainable unless India develops payment mechanisms for the oil imports.
The Modi-Putin summit took many steps to address that issue, listing action-items in nine specific areas in a Joint Vision statement on trade by 2030 that appeared to make circumventing western sanctions a priority.
Chennai Vladivostok maritime corridor
Joint statement on furthering cooperation in Russia’s Far East focuses on increasing energy supplies from Russia, as well as much-needed commodities exports from India, using Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor
These will help rationalise the trade imbalance
International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar project
The INSTC is the ship, rail, and road route for moving freight between India, Russia, Iran, Europe, and Central Asia
The primary goal of INSTC is to enhance connectivity and promote trade and economic cooperation among these regions
A Trump administration is likely to double down on strictures against Iran-led connectivity routes such as INSTC and the Chabahar project to India’s west
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