Considerable attention is being devoted to the Third Plenum of China’s 20th Party Congress for signs of a possible thaw.
There is a lingering hope that the plenum, scheduled to be held from July 15-18, might signify a shift in policy and a change in direction, at least as far as China is concerned.
Pessimism is, nevertheless, rife in the West that China would ever subscribe to the idea that the security of every country is intimately linked to the security of the other
Meantime, a belief exists in the West that China had ‘peaked’ economically following its disastrous ‘Zero COVID’ policy
Also, that China’s economy is still in terminal decline.
Hence, the plenum might well pave the way for a change in direction, unlikely though it might look as of now.
There is, thus, considerable interest, all around, about the eventual outcome of the plenum
Third Plenums typically set the economic strategy for the next five to 10 years, and are generally viewed as the most crucial Plenum in the Central Committee’s five-year cycle.
That China has economic problems is not denied: an ageing population, shrinking workforce, high levels of debt, and an economy that is still facing problems, notwithstanding the measures that have been put in place.
This has given rise to a great deal of pessimism within China itself about its future.
Hopes are high that the Plenum will come out with certain new guidelines that would at least convey an impression to the people and the world outside that China’s economy is in good shape
The West’s drumbeat of allegations against China is, meanwhile, set to continue.
Notwithstanding the outcome of the plenum deliberations, they will convince themselves that China’s ‘gray zone coercion’ tactics are likely to continue.
Activities such as ‘disinformation’ campaigns, interference in elections in democracies, military provocations in the seas around China, within and outside the First and Second Island Chains, the threat to Taiwan and countries in the South and East China Seas will, they claim, remain
Countries in Asia in particular, may, therefore, need to contend specifically with the threat posed by a mix of Chinese values, cultural expansionism, and national security paranoia.
China’s Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) well encompass many of China’s beliefs, leaving little scope for any adjustment
China’s approach is, thus, likely to add a great deal of ‘flux’ to an already difficult regional and global situation.
It could also pose a dilemma for India’s policymakers.
For many years now, and more so since 2020, India’s relations with China have remained under deep strain.
This is not solely due to the tense situation prevailing on the China-India border, but has been the catalyst.
As far as the border is concerned, the Chinese still demonstrate little ‘give’, despite India indicating a willingness to show more flexibility
The result of all this is that both China and India appear to be hardening their attitudes.
Already, reams are being written in India about the size of Beijing’s growing missile and nuclear inventory.
China’s approach to the deployment of dual capability missiles is being adversely commented upon.
Members from India’s strategic community also continue to draw attention to the danger posed by China’s Rocket Force (which oversees its nuclear and conventional missiles), and about the advances made by China in space and electronic warfare.
The broad hint is that India should prepare for the worst, and take adequate steps in the event of a confrontation
The issue, therefore, is whether a confrontation is inevitable, or whether an attempt could be made to deflect China’s ‘evil intentions’ through diplomacy and other means.
There is no hint forthcoming, that China would respond positively to such overtures, given China’s hard line stance and its aggressive mien
This is, however, as good a time as any for any experimentation, given that the economic and the strategic consequences of a conflict would be grim for both countries.
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