The Finance Ministry has flagged geopolitical tensions and volatile global commodity prices, especially of petroleum products, as “substantial multi-frontal challenges” to the economy, but noted that positive indications for the farm sector from a normal monsoon should “firewall” India against such adverse pressures and also help food prices and retail inflation to ease.
The ministry said the future inflation path would be shaped by several elements, including the upcoming rabi harvest that should cool wheat and chana prices, and the predicted normal monsoon, which should bolster food production.
Apart from improved farm output, the ministry also pointed to “macro-economic buffers nurtured and strengthened during the post-COVID management of the economy” as an enabler to help the economy navigate geopolitical tumult and turbulent global commodity prices “reasonably smoothly”.
The ministry asserted that investment activity remains expansive and consumption is being propelled by consistent growth in urban demand and a resurgence in rural demand.
“For the first time in five quarters, rural fast moving consumer goods demand growth outpaced urban growth,” it said about trends between January and March this year
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