Rainfall from June-September is expected to be 6% more than the 87 cm (which is considered to be the average rainfall the country receives during these months), in this year according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast
The IMD’s climate models suggest a 30% chance of “excess” rains — defined as more than 10% of what is usual
Two arid monsoon months and torrential rains in the last two may be fine for agriculture but is likely to result in extreme floods and — as has been observed in the past — immense damage to lives, livelihoods and infrastructure.
The 2018 floods in Kerala continue to be a reminder of how vulnerable India is to natural disasters
States must, at the soonest, draw up emergency plans from their disaster-management modules to bolster infrastructure, prepare evacuation plans, conduct audits of the structural stability of dams and their distress-signalling network and ensure that broader early-warning networks are in place.
India’s farmers, a majority of whom continue to be dependent on rain-fed agriculture, must also be informed of the possibility of a stronger, second half of the monsoon and incorporate these in their sowing operations.
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