India’s merchandise exports hit a 12-month peak of $41.7 billion in March
Imports fell 6% to $57.3 billion, taking the trade deficit to an 11-month low
Amid a decline in commodity prices, which averaged about 14% lower last year, this is a commendable outcome, aided by demand proving more resilient than earlier anticipated in major markets
In India, a healthy monsoon is expected to spur domestic demand, including for discretionary imports.
But sustained disruptions on two of the world’s key shipping routes — the Suez and Panama Canals — along with geopolitical fault lines and an increasing scepticism about the benefits of global trade in several countries, pose creeping risks that have not fully manifested yet.
Exporters do not seem so sure about the upbeat official outlook — they need to start raising prices soon to catch up with shipping cost surges, exposing them to competitive pressures.
For Asia and India, any prolonged friction in the Strait of Hormuz, a key supply route for the region’s oil and gas imports, is the biggest threat to trade and macroeconomic balances.
The spike in crude prices already showed up in March as the petroleum trade deficit hit a record monthly high of $11.8 billion while oil exports slid to an eight-month low.
India’s high energy import dependence is known, and any spurt in global energy and food prices would also derail hopes of global interest rate cuts and improved demand
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