China-Taiwan conflict
The China-Taiwan conflict is a complex issue with historical roots and ongoing tensions. Here's a summary:
Background:
The civil war between the Chinese Nationalists (Kuomintang or KMT) and the Chinese Communists ended in 1949 with the Communists establishing the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland.
The Nationalists retreated to Taiwan, where they established the Republic of China (ROC).
China claims Taiwan as a breakaway province and considers reunification a core national interest.
Taiwan, on the other hand, views itself as a sovereign state.
Current Situation:
Tensions persist due to differing political systems and China's insistence on ultimate control over Taiwan.
China increases military activity near Taiwan and frequently asserts its claim through rhetoric and actions.
Taiwan invests in its own defense and maintains strong ties with the United States.
Which is obligated by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.
Potential Flashpoints:
China's growing military power and assertiveness raise concerns about a potential invasion of Taiwan.
Taiwan's move towards formal independence could be seen as a provocation by China.
Any accidental military incident could escalate tensions.
Global Impact:
A conflict between China and Taiwan would have a devastating impact on the region and potentially the global economy.
Taiwan is a major producer of semiconductors, essential for modern electronics.
A disruption in supply chains could have severe consequences.
Possible Scenarios:
Peaceful resolution through dialogue: This is the preferred outcome, but major concessions by either side seem unlikely at present.
Military conflict: This is a dangerous scenario with unpredictable consequences.
Continued tensions with occasional flare-ups: This is a possibility, but the risk of escalation remains.
What India can do?
Beijing’s strategy for Taiwan uses all instruments of national power, from international law to economic and political leverage, aside from military coercion.
It would doubtless prefer to pursue less costly and disruptive non-military ways as long as they remain viable.
Given the stakes involved, it would only resort to a military campaign once it is satisfied that it has adequately set the conditions for victory.
The military balance across the Taiwan Strait will therefore be the most critical deterrent.
But non-belligerent states like India can buttress deterrence by convincing Beijing that it has not adequately set the conditions.
India has six types of policy options at its fingertips: international law arguments; building narratives opposed to aggression; coordinated diplomatic messaging; economic de-risking.
Active information operations to support the Taiwanese people; and military support to the U.S. forces in the Indian Ocean.
Each option can be calibrated to variable levels of ambition and political appetite; and they can be adapted and applied by many other countries.
These options can also advance India’s grand strategic position, regardless of their impact on the China-Taiwan dispute.
Enacting these policies would, first and foremost, lend India more leverage in its intensifying strategic competition with China.
They also offer additional pathways for India to deepen its cooperation with the U.S., thereby accelerating its national rise.
And they offer a wider agenda for Indian international leadership.
Especially among countries of the Global South, which otherwise would be passive or at best uncoordinated in deterring Chinese aggression more broadly.
Effect on Indian Economy
New Delhi has three main reasons to do so.
First, it has a stake in the status quo with Taiwan as a self-governing territory that does not declare independence.
India and Taiwan have expanded trade seven-fold since 2001 and are exploring a possible free trade agreement.
The Taiwanese firm, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, has partnered with the Tata Group to build India’s first semiconductor fabrication plant.
An agreement was signed recently to send Indian workers to Taiwan.
India’s industry, critical supply chains, and overseas population are all increasingly invested in an enduring peaceful status quo across the Taiwan Strait.
Second, any Chinese aggression against Taiwan would be catastrophically costly for India.
Such a scenario would, in effect, cripple global trade with China and Taiwan, which would create disruptions throughout Asia and West Asia.
A recent Bloomberg study estimates that the costs of a conflict would amount to over 10% of global GDP.
India’s economy would suffer a greater shock than the U.S. economy and its most valuable sectors, from electronics to pharmaceuticals, would run dry of components and materials.
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