Recent issues in Myanmar
A coordinated offensive by Myanmar’s ethnic rebels against the junta in several parts of the country late last month.
Its the clearest sign yet that the coup regime’s hands are overstretched.
The Three Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of ethnic minority armed groups, has claimed to have made territorial gains on Myanmar’s border with China and dozens of junta forces surrendering.
Clashes have erupted in the restive Rakhine State, and Chin State that borders India.
Faced with battlefield setbacks, the junta’s response has been to carry out air strikes, causing heavy civilian casualties.
When the military toppled the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021.
Since then, over 4,000 civilians and pro-democracy activists have been killed by the military, 20,000 people jailed.
But the junta’s violence has done little in stabilising the country.
Myanmar has faced violence by ethnic minorities for decades.
Over two years, The rebels have made substantial territorial gains and kept multiple fronts open.
They are maintaining operational pressure points on the junta.
The generals are also facing regional isolation, especially in ASEAN.
The new rebel offensive and territorial losses point to the mounting woes of Gen. Min Aung Hlaing’s regime.
A military solution looks improbable.
They demand a federal democratic system with greater autonomy for ethnic minority regions.
If the violence continues, especially in areas bordering India and China, it will have regional repercussions.
Major regional players, along with ASEAN, should play a more proactive role to achieve a ceasefire in Myanmar, setting the stage for meaningful dialogue that is aimed at restoring democracy and freedoms.
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