Anthropogenic Trend
The ‘anthropogenic’ suffix presumes that these trends are occurring within human lifetimes.
As such, the duration over which a variable needs to evolve for its behaviour to be called a ‘trend’ is not always clear.
For example, a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change in 2022 found that the annual number of tropical cyclones has declined globally since the twentieth century, likely due to the weakening of the major tropical circulations caused by warming.
Anthropogenic Trend
However, the study also found that the proportion of severe storms with anthropogenic-induced warming has increased.
Increasing intensity: Warmer sea surface temperatures provide more energy for cyclones to develop and intensify. As a result, cyclones are becoming more intense on average.
Increasing rainfall rates: Warmer air can hold more moisture, which means that cyclones are producing more rainfall. This can lead to flooding and other hazards.
Anthropogenic Trend
Increasing storm surge: Sea level rise is also increasing the height of storm surge, which can inundate coastal areas and cause widespread damage.
Slower storm speeds: Causes more damages.
Secular Trends
Climate scientists also use the term ‘secular trend’.
which is to say that a variable has been increasing for a certain period within a longer span, such as for 30 years in a 100-year period.
Then there is ‘decadal variability’, a common term that isn’t entirely distinct from a shift.
Decadal variability refers to an oscillation from a positive to a negative phase on the order of tens of years.
On the other hand, a shift can mean an irreversible jump or just a rapid transition that will later return to a prior/older state.
Cyclogenisis
Cyclone-genesis is an indicator that denotes the chance of a cyclone forming.
It depends on some parameters, including the sea surface temperature, the ocean heat content, change in winds from the surface into the upper atmosphere, and rotation of winds near the surface.
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