Tensions Between Saudi Arabia and the UAE:
In December, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) criticized the UAE, accusing them of betrayal and threatening retaliation.
He compared his retaliation to the harsh blockade of Qatar, indicating potential severe measures.
The Crown Prince's irritation might stem from UAE ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) missing a crucial summit with the Chinese President.
This marks the end of the close relationship between MbS and MbZ.
Historical Camaraderie and Divergence:
MbS and MbZ initially had a mentor-mentee bond, forming strong strategic partnerships.
They collaborated in Yemen conflict, supported al-Sisi's Egypt, opposed Iran, disliked the Muslim Brotherhood, and imposed the Qatar blockade.
They disrupted democracy in Sudan and shared a close alliance.
Growing Differences:
UAE rejected OPEC+ oil production cut in 2017 due to its need to expand oil production.
UAE withdrew from Yemen, supported southern secession, and established bases.
UAE's expansion in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa caused tensions with Saudi Arabia.
Shifts in Foreign Policy:
UAE normalized ties with Israel, departing from the Saudi-sponsored Arab Peace Initiative.
Saudi Arabia re-admitted Syria to the Arab League, while UAE didn't attend the summit.
Disagreements emerged over supporting different generals in Sudan and the pace of Saudi-Iran normalization.
Economic and Political Competition:
Saudi Arabia and UAE compete in global business, tourism, finance, and technology sectors.
Both vie for regional trade hub status, developing ports in the Gulf and Red Sea as part of China's Belt and Road Initiative.
UAE asserts its position with dynamism, ambition, global interactions, and a business-friendly image.
Future Outlook:
Competition, not cooperation, is likely to shape the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Saudi Arabia's leadership position in the Arab and Islamic worlds, along with its energy, business, and financial prominence, will remain unchallenged.
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