India might be experiencing its driest August in 100 years, with a 7% rainfall deficit compared to the long period average (LPA).
The India Meteorological Department predicts less than 180 mm of rainfall in August, the lowest since records began in 1901.
Reduced rainfall has impacted kharif crop sowing, particularly pulses which have decreased by 10% compared to the previous year.
Low August rainfall could lead to further food price increases, especially for pulses.
Agricultural outcomes in India are closely tied to the south-west monsoon rainfall.
A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) paper explores how reliance on monsoon rainfall has changed over time due to improved irrigation coverage.
Despite below-average rainfall in recent years, foodgrains and rice production have consistently grown, possibly due to improved irrigation coverage.
Chart 1 shows the correlation between rainfall deviation from LPA and change in foodgrains production.
Chart 2 illustrates the growth of irrigated area in major States from 1990 to 2020.
Chart 3 highlights the connection between low irrigation levels, insufficient rainfall, and decreased rice production in less irrigated States.
Chart 4 depicts how increased irrigation coverage can offset the negative impact of insufficient rainfall on rice production in better irrigated States.
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